JM Financial said India’s renewable energy additions have accelerated over the past three years, rising to 18.5GW in FY24, 28.7GW in FY25 and 51GW in FY26, helped in part by aggressive bidding. The brokerage said bidding had expanded to 52GW in FY24 and 56GW in FY25 from 10-17GW a year during FY20-FY23.
JM Financial, however, said bidding activity slowed to around 30GW in FY26 and 9.34GW in Q1 FY27, indicating a slower start to the year. It said India could still add 40-45GW of solar, 7-8GW of wind and 24GWh of BESS capacity in FY27, but warned that renewable energy additions could decline in FY28 unless new bidding revives.
RE additions accelerate
India has an installed renewable energy base of 237GW, excluding hydro, comprising 162GW of solar, 57GW of wind, 11GW of biomass and 7GW of other sources, according to JM Financial. The government’s plan is to reach 500GW of installed capacity from non-fossil sources, including hydro, nuclear and renewable energy, by 2030.
Bidding mix turns storage-heavy
JM Financial said the technology mix in tenders has changed materially. While solar dominated earlier auctions, its share has declined as tenders increasingly favour hybrid projects, BESS, FDRE or RTC projects and pumped hydro for dispatchable power. In Q1 FY27, 36 tenders covering 9.34GW were issued, against 17.2GW in Q4 FY26, including 1.48GW of BESS, 2GW of PSP, 1.2GW of FDRE, 1GW of hybrid, 2.35GW of wind and 1.34GW of solar.
Pipeline and PPAs
JM Financial said it analysed 580 under-construction renewable energy projects listed by the CEA. As of March 2026, India had 138GW of under-construction capacity, excluding rooftop and solarised agriculture pumps, including 85GW of solar, 32GW of wind and 21GW of hybrid projects. Of this, 76GW, or 55 per cent, has signed PPAs, while 62GW, or 45 per cent, is yet to secure PPAs.
Within the signed pipeline, solar accounts for 52GW, or 68 per cent, followed by 13GW of hybrid and 11GW of wind. JM Financial said 41.7GW of this capacity is due for commissioning in FY27, 18.6GW in FY28 and 13.7GW from FY29 onwards. The unsigned 62.3GW pipeline, including more than 40GW of legacy projects, is led by solar at 33GW, followed by wind at 20.4GW and hybrid at 8.9GW.
FY27 outlook and stocks
JM Financial said the CEA data does not fully capture C&I and distributed renewable energy, which it estimates at 7-8GW and 8-10GW a year respectively, based on industry feedback. It also assumes 75 per cent of hybrid capacity to be solar because these projects are dominated by solar plus BESS.
So far in FY27, 11.9GW of solar and 1.4GW of wind have been added, against 10.6GW and 1.6GW respectively in Q1 FY26, despite the ISTS waiver and ALMM-II cut-off date. JM Financial said moderate tendering since FY26 could pull FY28 additions down to 25-30GW of solar and 5-6GW of wind, making conversion of the uncontracted pipeline into PPAs and a revival in bidding crucial beyond FY27.
In renewable energy generation and equipment manufacturing, JM Financial retained ‘BUY’ on Tata Power with a target price of Rs 450, Suzlon Energy (Target Price: Rs 64), Premier Energies (Target Price: Rs 1,324), Emmvee (Target Price: Rs 402) and CESC (Target Price: Rs 207).
On the other hand, the brokerage firm has retained an ‘ADD’ on Adani Green at (Target Price: Rs 1,622 ), Waaree Energies (Target Price: Rs 3,296), Inox Wind (Target Price: Rs 92) and Vikram Solar (Target Price: Rs 219). It has a ‘REDUCE’ rating for ACME Solar with a target price of Rs 367.
Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.