Tesla’s second-quarter earnings report will provide insights into the state of the core business — but it’s the company’s future that investors will be focused on more than ever.
Why it matters: After the SpaceX IPO, investors are watching closely for any signs that Elon Musk plans to merge Tesla with SpaceX or keep it independent.
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“The stock is increasingly being valued on robotaxi and humanoid developments rather than core auto fundamentals — with a potential SpaceX acquisition adding a premium to our valuation,” wrote Tom Narayan, global autos lead equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
The big picture: It is becoming increasingly clear that Musk’s business empire — long viewed as disparate businesses competing for his attention — is in fact one enterprise, largely devoted to the pursuit of AI.
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Musk has always bristled at the description of Tesla as a car company, preferring to emphasize its investments in its Optimus humanoid robot and its Cybercab self-driving car service.
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With Tesla investing in a massive chip fabrication facility and SpaceX becoming a powerhouse for AI compute capacity, the business case for combining the two companies looks increasingly sensible.
Zoom in: Expect Musk to focus Wednesday’s earnings call largely on where Tesla is headed.
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“Strong auto and energy deliveries improve near-term fundamentals, but we continue to believe Robotaxi and Optimus will be the primary drivers for the stock,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote.
The intrigue: The post-Iran war surge of gas prices has been helpful to EV sales, providing critical cash flow for Tesla’s AI investments.
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Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 Tesla vehicle sales forecast to 1.67 million units from 1.57 million and upped its 2027 forecast to 1.86 million from 1.82 million.
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Autos still represent about 70% of the company’s revenue.
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“Stability in this core segment … is crucial to afford investors the flexibility to place higher probabilities on Tesla’s success in … physical AI (Robotaxi and Optimus),” Jonas wrote.
What to watch: Updates on Tesla’s self-driving car service in Austin, which is off to a slow start, falling far short of Musk’s projections of where it would be by now.
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