A chipmaker and two power producers are raising forecasts and signing hyperscaler contracts while their stocks sit well off their peaks. That gap between fundamentals and price action may not last past September.
September’s final trading week reveals a divergence between fundamentals and price action in AI infrastructure. Three major picks-and-shovels beneficiaries of the data center buildout are trading well off their highs even as their operators raise forecasts and sign hyperscaler contracts. That gap is where opportunity hides.
Below are three names, one chipmaker and two power producers, that fit the pattern heading into month-end.
Marvell Technology: Custom Silicon Ramp With a Reset Price Tag
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) has quietly become one of the most important custom AI silicon suppliers on the market, yet the stock is still working its way back to its own highs. Shares closed at $244.25 on Thursday, up 187.84% year to date but sitting below the 52-week high of $329.80. That is the drawdown worth paying attention to given what management just told investors.
On the August 27 earnings call, Marvell raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to approximately $12 billion, up from roughly $11.5 billion previously, and now expects data center revenue to grow approximately 60% this fiscal year. Q2 revenue hit $2.739 billion, up 37% year-over-year, with data center now 79% of total revenue. Custom silicon is expected to more than double year over year in fiscal 2028, aided by the expanded Google partnership that includes a warrant for Google to acquire up to 7% of Marvell shares tied to revenue milestones.
The risk: concentration cuts both ways. Marvell’s data center business leans heavily on a small set of hyperscalers, and any move by those customers to vertically integrate or shift roadmaps would land hard. A forward PE of 55 leaves little margin for stumbles.
Constellation Energy: Nuclear Contracting Momentum, Sold-Off Stock
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) is the clearest example of the news-to-price gap in this basket. Shares closed at $254.71, down 27.57% year to date and off 10.55% in just the past week. Yet the operational story keeps improving.
Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.55 beat the $2.33 consensus by 9.52%, on revenue of $7.504 billion, up 23% year over year. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance to $11.50 to $12.50 per share from $11.00 to $12.00 and projects base EPS growth of 20%+ annually through 2029. Constellation signed approximately 920 megawatts of long-term nuclear deals with an average duration of 18 and a half years to investment-grade customers, on top of Meta and Microsoft agreements. The nuclear fleet produced 44,160 GWh at a 93% capacity factor.
CEO Joe Dominguez on PJM regulatory clarity: “Once we do get clarity, we’re going to see here in PJM what we’ve seen in many places where deal flow will kick off with a bit of a bang.” Buybacks: roughly $2.2 billion deployed year to date with about $2.8 billion remaining.
The risk: PJM’s rules for large-load interconnection are still being written, the Illinois ZEC program ends in May 2027, and Q2 saw a heavier refueling outage schedule at 86 outage days versus 41 a year earlier. Calpine integration adds execution risk on top of that.
Vistra: Diversified Dispatchable Power at a Peer Discount
Vistra (NYSE:VST) is the valuation contrast in this basket. Shares finished at $140.68, down 12.55% year to date and 32.70% over the past year. Yet Vistra trades at a forward PE of 14, a meaningful discount to Constellation’s growth-linked multiple while riding the same AI power thesis.
Q2 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA jumped to $1.77 billion from $1.35 billion, up more than 30% year over year, with Texas more than doubling to $311 million. Management reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and holds roughly 100% of 2026 generation volumes hedged, 94% for 2027, and 72% for 2028. Vistra formed the Helix Digital Infrastructure JV with NVIDIA, KKR, and the Kuwait Investment Authority, with up to a $1.0 billion initial commitment. Meta PPAs at PJM nuclear sites and the FERC-approved Cogentrix acquisition (5,500 MW of natural gas) add optionality not yet in the 2027 guide.
CEO Jim Burke framed the customer pull on the August call: “The customers, the large load customers, they are interested in contracting with existing, and they are interested in contracting at a premium with existing because it’s still a discount to what new build costs.”
The risk: Q2 GAAP net income was dragged by $472 million in unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivative hedges, and that noise will keep clouding headline results. Softer ERCOT forward curves and Cogentrix integration are the other watch items.
What to Watch Into October
All three operators raise numbers while stocks reprice. AI infrastructure requires both silicon and dispatchable megawatts. The EIA’s latest outlook expects data center server demand to climb sharply through 2050, with the South Atlantic and West South Central census divisions, home to Virginia and Texas, growing fastest. Marvell’s October 6 Investor Day is the near-term catalyst; PJM’s expected large-load framework in early 2027 is the medium-term one.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.